THE NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION ACT REVIEW PANEL GOVERNMENT OF CANADA SUBMISSION BLUE WATER BRIDGE AUTHORITY BUFFALO AND PORT ERIE PUBLIC BRIDGE AUTHORITY NIAGARA FALLS BRIDGE COMMISSION.2 Executive Summary The single largest component of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – and contributor to the nation’s prosperity – is trade with the United States of America. Trade policy initiatives such as the Automotive Agreement, the Canada – US Free Trade Agreement, and the North American Free Trade Agreement have been exceptionally successful in stimulating bilateral trade between the two nations. Indeed, this is the largest and one of the fastest growing bilateral trading relationships in the world. This trade is not only in finished goods. Provisions of these trade agreements have reduced the barriers to industrial integration between Canada and the US, leading to shared production on a vast scale, particularly in the automotive industry, and in many others, as well. Shared production, shared markets for finished goods, and the move to “just-in-time” production management techniques have led to massive increases in commercial truck traffic over the roads of both nations, and on the bridges and border crossings that connect them. This is nowhere more true than it is in the province of Ontario and its adjoining American states, Michigan and New York. Today, continued bilateral trade growth is dependent on the sufficiency and efficiency of transportation infrastructure, including the provincial highway networks and the international bridges. Both of these components of the transportation system have become vital parts of Canada’s national transportation infrastructure, and should be so recognized. Planning and operation of the international bridges are considered to be administered well. Canada’s sovereignty interests, an essential consideration in international trade and transportation, are well attended at these crossing points by relevant federal agencies. The varying ownership arrangements of the bridge crossings contribute positively to the efficiency with which they operate. There is no apparent requirement for further federal involvement in this area. Nonetheless, given the crucial role that bridges (and other border crossings) play in support of the trade that is so vital to the emerging Canadian economy, and given that the efficiency and effectiveness of all border crossings is directly dependent upon the adequacy of the provincial highway networks that feed them, the need for coordination and planning for land transportation infrastructure is evident. Ideally, this should involve all interested parties brought together in a structured organization established and empowered under the aegis of the National Transportation Act..3 Introduction “Both countries are committed to the modernization of the shared border to facilitate legitimate travel, address mutual threats, improve compliance with the laws of both countries, and efficiently manage increasing volumes of trade and travel to reduce pressure on border resources and infrastructure.” This statement, taken from Canada-United States Accord on Our Shared Border – Update 2000, illustrates the long tradition of peaceful and mutually supportive relations between the two countries. It speaks, as well, to the future. As Canada enters the twenty-first century, the nation’s economy clearly is poised for long-term expansion, a continuation of the growth it has experienced for more than twenty years. Much of the past growth and the anticipated expansion can be attributed directly to foresightful national policy on foreign trade. Of particular importance has been more than three decades of liberalization of trade laws between Canada and the United States. More recently, Mexico has come to be included in a trading partnership that spans the North American continent. This effort to ease trade restrictions has led to large increases in the exchange of finished goods among the three countries. More importantly, it has contributed to economic rationalization of production across the continent in many industries. This has led, in turn, to greater economic efficiency, increased production, and improved competitiveness in world markets for those industries. Because of the nation’s policies in support of trade liberalization and economic rationalization, Canada has become a well-integrated member of one of the world’s most powerful economic blocs. However, Canada’s national transportation policy has not kept pace with the nation’s new economic realities. This document will focus briefly on the nature of the emerging Canadian economy and the trade policies that have shaped it. Next, it will examine the nature of certain transportation issues arising from the growth of trade as a vital component of the emerging national economy. It will then discuss matters concerning the operation of border crossings as they relate to national sovereignty and to the ownership and operations of border crossing facilities. Finally, it will present suggestions regarding the development of transportation policy consistent with and supportive of growth in a rapidly evolving national economy..4 The Role of International Trade in the Canadian Economy The last two decades have been a time of protracted expansion for the Canadian economy. The nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown from $272 billion in 1979 to $958 billion in 1999. When adjusted for inflation, the GDP has increased over that period from $528 billion to about $880 billion. During this time, the nation experienced only two relatively brief economic downturns, in 1982 and in 1991-92. Foreign trade expanded even more rapidly than the economy as a whole during the past twenty years. In 1979, merchandise exports from Canada to the rest of the world stood at $66 billion and merchandise imports totaled $61 billion. Two-way trade totaled $127 billion. That year, the nation experienced a positive merchandise trade balance of almost $5 billion. By 1999, exports reached $361 billion, and imports were $327 billion, almost a six-fold increase in both. Two-way trade amounted to $688 billion. The trade balance rose proportionately, to almost $34 billion. Each year throughout this entire period Canada experienced a positive merchandise trade balance, a significant factor in fueling the growth that the nation experienced. Canada’s primary trading partner is the United States. In 1979, merchandise exports from Canada to the US amounted to about $45 billion and imports to Canada from the US totaled $44 billion, resulting in a two-way trade volume of almost $90 billion and a positive balance of trade of approximately $1 billion. By 1999, Canadian exports to the US had risen to $309 billion, and imports from the US had increased to $249 billion. The two-way trade volume between the two countries grew to $558 billion, with a positive trade balance of $60 billion. In 1979, Canada-US trade represented 70 percent of the nation’s total trade, and 25 percent of its trade balance. By 1999, Canada-US trade had grown to 84 percent of Canada’s total trade, and the positive trade balance with the US offset Canadian negative trade balances of $26 billion with the rest of the world..5 Trade and Trade Policy on the North American Continent Canada and United States are partners in the largest and one of the most dynamic bilateral trading relationships in the world. While this relationship has existed since Canada achieved nationhood, the implementation of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 1989 was a watershed event in the economic history of both nations. This agreement called for the phase out of all tariff and most non-tariff barriers to trade between the two nations. What had been the world’s longest border without military defenses also became the world’s longest border without barriers to economic exchange. Five years after FTA, in 1994, a tripartite agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico, the North American Free Trade Agreement, was put into effect. NAFTA provided for the elimination of virtually all tariffs between the partner nations over a fifteen-year period, the reduction of non-tariff barriers to trade, and the liberalization of private investment. It also addressed many other issues regarding the trade relationships among the signatory countries. In its broadest scope, NAFTA has resulted in the creation of one of the most powerful, unified, economic blocs in the world, with a regional GDP exceeding $15 trillion and combined natural, technological, human, and capital resources unmatched anywhere on the globe. Moreover, the 400 million consumers in the region represent the world’s richest market for goods and services. The elimination of tariffs and the reduction of non-tariff barriers have resulted in a rapid growth of trade among the member nations as North American companies have become better able to serve this market unimpeded by artificial costs and restrictions. Perhaps less well understood, and certainly less frequently mentioned, NAFTA also has made possible the rationalization of economic production across the continent. The concept of rationalization of production is a significant one in understanding the overall importance of trade and the movement of traded goods on the continent. Rationalization means that firms locate various elements of their production processes in the areas where they can be done most efficiently and with the smallest contribution to the overall cost of the product. Since a rationalized production process may require that a product move through stages of production at several locations, efficient transportation is vital to the success of such a process..6 As a reflection of the imperatives that drive economic rationalization, US and Canadian firms traditionally have retained product development and design-, capital- and skill-intensive manufacturing, and marketing activities in the home countries, while shifting labor-intensive operations requiring limited skills to countries where labor costs are lower. NAFTA has made the Canadian border less of an obstacle to production sharing between these countries in terms of high value-added components of the production process, and has added Mexico as a feasible location for labor-intensive operations. The resulting improvements in efficiency and productivity of many North American producers are leading to the enhanced competitiveness of their products in domestic and world markets. The effects of unimpeded trade and economic rationalization on the bilateral economic relationship between the US and Canada have been particularly pronounced. In 1988, the last year prior to the activation of the FTA, merchandise trade between the two countries was approximately $198 billion. In 1993, the fifth year in which the FTA was in force, bilateral merchandise trade had grown to $279 billion, an increase of 41 percent. By 1998, five years into NAFTA, trade in goods between the two countries had grown to $503 billion, well more than double the pre-FTA figure. This growth from what was already a large base has ensured that the US-Canada trading relationship remains the largest in the world. It is difficult to predict precisely the magnitude of and increases in trade among the NAFTA countries. For at least the next decade or more, however, it is probably safe to say that the minimum growth in bilateral trade that can be expected is somewhere in between the long- and short-term trend rates, and that it will start at or near the current rate. Data from Statistics Canada puts this figure at about 11 percent for 1999. High levels of sectoral two-way trade and foreign direct investment are clear indicators that integration and rationalization are taking place, with the result that the interdependence of manufacturing industries in the two nations is growing rapidly. This interdependence runs counter to the traditional nationalist ideal of Canadian sovereignty. Two-way trade in industries such as motor vehicles, aircraft, rail locomotives and rolling stock, and computing and communications devices, comprises about half of all US-Canada merchandise trade, with the automotive sector alone accounting for 28 percent ($126 billion) of the 1998 total. US foreign direct investment in Canada that year amounted to more than $150 billion with $68 billion of the total invested in the manufacturing sector..7 Regional Economic Relationships The developments in trade and economic restructuring that are taking place on a national and international scale are reflected in developments at the state/province level, and on even smaller scales, as well. In no case is this more evident or more significant than in the adjoining State and Province of Michigan and Ontario. These regions are the industrial core areas of their respective countries. The continent’s vast automotive industry is centered there, as are many of the industries that support it. The integration of the US and Canadian auto industries began in earnest in the 1960s with early trade liberalization accords specific to that industry, but the more recent agreements have accelerated the process. This concentration of automotive enterprises and their close integration across the Canadian-American border is shown clearly in trade data. Of a 1998 total of almost $27 billion in exports from Michigan to Canada, about $18 billion was comprised of autos ($2.6 billion), trucks ($1.5 billion), and motor vehicle parts ($13.8 billion), most destined for Ontario. Of the $56 billion in Canadian exports to Michigan, about $44 billion was comprised of autos ($30 billion), trucks ($7.5 billion), and automotive parts ($7 billion). Most of those Canadian automotive exports to Michigan originated in Ontario. While the auto industry accounts for more Michigan-Ontario trade than any other, significant amounts of trade occur in many other industries, including chemicals, machinery and machine tools, metal products, furniture, and lumber. Michigan and Ontario benefit from more than just the direct exchanges between the two areas. The geography of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada is dominated by the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes form a natural barrier to transportation by road and rail between the key manufacturing regions of the two countries. Road and rail are the traditionally preferred modes of transportation for many goods in process and finished goods. As a result, certain areas where cross-border transit is least impeded by natural barriers have become vital conduits for road and rail shipments. The border crossings between southeastern Michigan and southwestern Ontario are such conduits. They serve the immediate areas in which they are located, but shipments from all over both nations (and, increasingly, Mexico as NAFTA takes hold) also funnel into these areas to utilize the transportation infrastructure and border crossing facilities..8 According to estimates reported by the US Department of Transportation, the largest portion of the merchandise trade between US and Canada, about one-third of the total, uses crossings on the Michigan/Ontario border. In 1998, this represented more than $120 billion in shipments. Preliminary trade data for 1999 indicate that this figure grew to exceed $130 billion. More than seventy percent of the dollar volume of trade passing through Michigan-Ontario gateways is carried in commercial trucks. Similarly, in the Niagara region, border crossings between southern Ontario and New York have become increasingly important conduits for trade between the US and Canada. Shipments moving from Ontario to any of the eastern states are likely to use border crossings in this area. The movement of goods in these areas is not dominated by a single industry to the extent that it is farther to the west. The auto industry and its suppliers play an important but not overriding role in this region, where a wide array of other industries are located and many other types of goods are produced. Nonetheless, the same pattern of rationalization and integration of production in this region has led to rapid increases in the flow of traded goods between the two nations. In addition, container traffic which utilizes east coast seaports in either the US or Canada uses crossings in the Niagara area and southwestern Ontario because these crossings are on the most direct routes for in-transit shipments to and from the central manufacturing regions of both countries. Fourteen percent of Ontario’s exports to the United States cross the Peace Bridge and 75 percent of this total is destined (in order of value) to New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, and North Carolina. Two-way truck volume in 1999 reached 1,480,000 units (see Annex “B”). The total value of trade carried is estimated at $38 billion. Bridges under the Niagara Falls Bridge Commission carried a similar range of Canadian, particularly Ontario, origin exports to the eastern United States. Truck volume in 1999 reached 1.1 million vehicles (see Annex C). It is estimated that the annual value of trade carried is over $22 billion and that ten percent of all vehicle crossings between Canada and the United States occurred at these bridges..9 In the last five years, for example, trade between Canada and New York State has grown by about 50 percent, consistent with overall growth rate in bilateral trade for the same period. Over the Ontario–New York frontier the value of goods transported by road is now approaching $80 billion annually. Clearly, then, the trade corridors between Ontario and the northern United States are vital to the health and well being of both the local and national economies..10 International Bridges and Canadian Sovereignty Every border crossing point – roads, railways, tunnels, water ports, airports, and bridges – between Canada and the United States of America constitutes a location where Canada’s sovereignty can be challenged and must be exercised. The final quarter of the twentieth century was characterized by massive shifts in the patterns of movement of people and products across the Canadian-American international border. Increases in international travel were largely accommodated by new airline capacities and existing land and bridge crossings. Largely, international bridges have facilitated the spectacular and continuing increase in international trade between the two nations. Today, it is estimated that over ninety percent of bilateral trade is carried by road and rail, and that the bulk of this movement crosses bridges between the Canadian Province of Ontario and the American States of Michigan and New York. This has created capacity demands to which bridge operators have successfully responded. It has also created similar demands on Federal government officials engaged in the enforcement of Canada’s sovereignty. Federal agencies visibly on the front line of Canada’s sovereignty are the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency, Immigration Canada, and Agriculture Canada. These agencies have specific review and enforcement mandates related to the inflow into Canada of goods and people and, where applicable, export controls on the movement of goods out of Canada. Physical facilities enabling federal agencies to execute their mandates are provided, at no cost, by the owners and/or operators of bridge crossings, tunnel crossings, and airports. The provision of work-related equipment, though, is the responsibility of the Canadian federal agencies. Officials of these agencies enjoy the support inside Canada from neighbouring police authorities, which are provided, according to circumstances of location, by federal, provincial, or municipal forces. Behind the scenes, several federal departments have interests at border crossings. These include Health Canada, Transport Canada, and Foreign Affairs and International Trade. Provincial government Departments of Transport operate closely to bridge and land crossings to enforce vehicle safety requirements. With the shift of commercial traffic to international bridges and the concomitant increases in trade and truck crossings, new challenges to Canada’s sovereignty arise from several areas. For example, the demand for additional truck-carrying capacity has created.11 a large demand for additional drivers. In the United States, the Prisoner Release Program has been used to recruit and train selected candidates as drivers. Convicted criminals, however, are not eligible to visit Canada. Because of this American policy, Canadian Immigration officials have had to implement more stringent border-crossing procedures. A separate challenge arises from “just-in-time” delivery practices, widely used in the automotive industry, which have tightened delivery schedules for many commercial carriers. Failure to meet these schedules can cause plant production shutdowns and business losses. The Canadian Customs and Revenue Agency (and U.S. Customs) has responded to these challenges with new programs designed to pre-approve clearance of shipments before the carrier arrives at the international border. This works to reduce the amount of processing time required at the crossing point and allows the cargo to reach its destination in a timely manner. Clearly, such programs do not have universal application. They do, however, serve to facilitate the flow of bilateral trade, ameliorate increased workloads on Customs officials, and enable these officials to focus their activities on shipments which require attention at the crossing point. These challenges affect not only the federal officials engaged in border-crossing activities, but also the owners and operators of international bridges. These bridges have evolved from being principally a method of conveying visitors between the United States and Canada into essential elements of Canada’s foreign trade. Given the importance of foreign trade to Canada’s (and especially Ontario’s) GDP, international bridges constitute an essential asset on the balance sheet of Canada’s economic prosperity. This is attributable to the exponential growth of Canadian-American trade. It is expected that this growth in trade will be sustained and continued between companies of both nations (see Annex ‘A’). International bridges are, therefore, an element in Canada’s sovereignty and should be so viewed in policy terms. Bridge owners and operators have responded to the new circumstances by seeking and implementing measures intended to facilitate truck and passenger vehicle flows through crossing points. Specifically, “plaza” spaces have been expanded to accommodate additional capacity for Customs’ inspection and additional parking for trucks has been created. At one bridge, a pre-processing facility has been constructed and operates to facilitate US-bound commercial vehicles. At another bridge, Canadian and American authorities have collaborated to establish and operate dedicated lanes for use by approved frequent travelers. Bridge owners and.12 operators have worked to construct additional office and operational areas for federal agencies concerned with cross-border traffic and have improved access to and from adjacent provincial highways. International bridges have become a clearly identifiable and essential element of Canada’s foreign trade network and an equally identifiable part of its national transportation infrastructure. Without exception, these bridges depart from and arrive in Canada on space that has a considerable federal government presence, and, in the arrival area, involves the exercise of Canadian sovereignty. It can be argued, therefore, that bridges can be viewed as an element of Canada’s national transportation infrastructure..13 Organizational Structures and Ownership International bridges linking Canada and the United States are located in New Brunswick and Ontario. Bridges in the Niagara peninsula adjacent to the State of New York and on the southwestern Ontario-Michigan border carry 60 percent of passenger vehicle and 89 percent of commercial vehicle traffic into and out of Canada. Ownership arrangements of the bridges vary from joint Canada-US holdings to complete private sector ownership. In the latter case, two bridges are owned and operated by American companies. This type of ownership arrangement is common on the US-Mexico border. No bridges, however, are owned by companies in the Canadian private sector. Joint ownership arrangements also vary. The United States government, while exercising American sovereignty on international bridges, does not play an ownership role along the Canadian frontier. Typically, American owners are various state governments while, in Canada, ownership rests with the federal government or the government of Ontario. A Federal Crown Corporation created to assume the non-marine assets of the St. Lawrence Seaway Commission owns two international bridges along the St. Lawrence River. The Canadian Government is the ultimate co-owner of the Blue Water Bridge and the Peace Bridge. Both bridges operate under their own Acts of Parliament, which set out procedures and authorities enabling the bridges to fully operate at arm’s length from their ultimate owner. Provision was made in both Acts for the creation of bi-national commissions to oversee ongoing management. Most significantly, both bridges operate as businesses, which earn revenues mainly from tolls. All costs of operations are charged against this revenue. All tolls collected in Canada are retained by the bridges, which receive no funding from the federal government. Canadian members of the bi-national commissions (known as “Authorities”) are appointed by Order-in-Council and are typically drawn from local communities. The Commissioners serve for fixed terms. The bridges are significant employers within their respective communities and total employment is matched or exceeded by the number of employees of Federal departments and agencies exercising jurisdictions over arriving visitors and import shipment. In addition to payroll expenses, considerable operational expenditures are made to local suppliers of goods and services. International bridges, while exercising a national role, are also seen as local assets to the neighbouring communities..14 The Peace Bridge Authority operates with a Commission consisting of American and Canadian Commissioners and a unified management structure. The Blue Water Bridge Authority, while authorized to have a bi-national commission, consists of Canadian-appointed Commissioners only and operates with separate management structures located in Point Edward, Ontario and in Lansing, Michigan. The Niagara Falls Bridge Commission is a United States corporation created by a Joint Resolution of the U.S. Congress and licenses under the Extra Provincial Corporations Act of the Province of Ontario. The Commissioners, appointed equally by Ontario and New York, oversee the Commission’s single management structure, and plan for capital improvements and repairs. Similarly, this Commission, which operates three bridges, and the Federal agencies, which operate on the bridges, are major local employers and contributors to the regional economy. While organizational streamlining would create desirable efficiencies for some bridge operators, overall international bridges are considered to be well run. This is largely because most bridges are operated as businesses, while still managing to accommodate the regulatory needs of both national governments. Nevertheless, international bridges, particularly those which provide access to commercial carriers, will face steady increases in traffic growth throughout the near future. The role that international bridges play in ensuring Canada’s prosperity, the fact that most bridges are not dependent upon public funding but do provide public services, and the fact that bridges have continually responded positively to change provide ample evidence that the existing structural and ownership arrangements can meet the future requirements of all involved. Similarly, existing regulatory cover for the operation of bridges owned indirectly by Canadian governments appears to be appropriate. This does not mean, however, that all is well with the nation’s transportation policy. If it is clear that Canada’s border crossings are handling the increased traffic that has resulted from growing volumes of trade and increased economic integration among the US, Canada, and Mexico, it is not so apparent that the nation’s highway transportation policies and programs will support such growth..15 Implications for National Transportation Policy Canada’s national policies regarding foreign trade are well articulated and widely understood. So, too, are the consequences of those policies. The results for the nation have been enhanced competitiveness, healthy, consistent economic growth, and a high and increasing degree of integration of production operations across national borders. None of this could have occurred had the national government not set the country on this course. However, it may not be enough merely to establish and promote trade policy. If the nation is to enjoy the full benefits that trade and economic policy make possible, then it may be necessary for the national government to take a more active role in formulating policies and plans in other areas that until now generally have not been regarded as within the purview of national government. In particular, it may be appropriate for the national government to play an expanded role in highway transportation planning and policy. The national government initially became involved in transportation issues through its conscious adoption of policies to promote and subsidize Canadian railroads in the late-nineteenth century. The resulting completion of a transcontinental railroad was the key step in the forging of a true Canadian nation from what had been, until this event, a confederation of disparate peoples spread thinly across a vast and sweeping landscape. The nature of maritime and air transportation also led to national initiatives to regulate, plan, and develop these forms of transportation. In contrast, road transportation always has been regarded as being within local or provincial purview. Much the same could have been said for the United States until the 1950s, and for many of the same reasons. At that time, based on his experiences with German transportation systems during World War II, President Eisenhower initiated a program to build a new network of high speed, limited-access highways across the United States. Though this was not the first attempt by the American government to become involved in road transportation, it was clearly the most ambitious, and the first to include significant resources for systematic design, planning, and construction. The interstate system has reshaped completely that nation’s economic and social structures. Few major residential, commercial, or industrial construction projects are undertaken in the US without interstate highway access being taken into account. State and local road construction.16 plans are influenced heavily by the Interstate highway system. National economic and social priorities, in turn, dictate the policies, plans, and implementation decisions that shape the Interstate highway system. It should be noted that recent US federal highway legislation under TEA 21gives funding priority to the development of corridors and borders to support growth in the movement of goods resulting from the implementation of NAFTA. Indeed, certain international bridges that are managed internationally are already accessing Federal Highways Administration financing for infrastructure projects. The responsibility for developing US highway transportation policy, plans, and programs rests with the US Department of Transportation. In addition to the highway planning and coordination that takes place at the national level, the American government also encourages and supports regional highway planning. States play a central role in the process, and regional organizations (e.g. the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments) may be involved, as well. States play the central role in the actual construction of roads that are part of the national highway system, with varying degrees of financial support from the national government. The result is a national initiative for highway infrastructure investment that also recognizes local needs, concerns, priorities, limitations, and financial capacities In Canada, the task of planning and constructing highways rests, with only minor exceptions, solely in the hands of provincial governments. Planning and construction of highway projects has been based on local and provincial perceptions of need and the availability of resources at the provincial level. This stands in contrast to the successful US model, as well as the historical approach in Canada to rail, maritime, and air transportation issues, which play a substantial role in national government policy development and planning. As a result, highway infrastructure development in Canada has not kept pace, in many instances, with the growth in demand for highway infrastructure that has resulted from, and will continue to be influenced by, the growth and evolution of the nation’s economy..17 At national and provincial levels, coordination of international transportation infrastructure issues is effected on an ad hoc basis, which in past years was sufficient to meet the perceived needs. Exponential trade growth between Canada and the United States has increased the need for such coordination to the point where national, provincial, and state governments must address mutual requirements to facilitate trade flows. The Canadian government should consider the creation, within the National Transportation Act, of a policy and planning body to deal with national highway transportation issues. The body should be comprised of all relevant levels of Canadian governments and users. While recognizing the historical prerogatives of provincial governments, such a body should cooperate in the funding of high priority international roadway infrastructure. It should provide direction, coordination, and technical assistance to the separate entities, which now have those responsibilities. It also should serve as a means of bringing together these and other interested parties to collaborate in the shaping of a national highway transportation policy that takes into account a wide range of factors that determine national needs for highway infrastructure. It should establish formal consultative arrangements with its American counterparts to seek solutions to bi-national transportation issues that affect the movement of people and goods across the Canada – US border. In this way, the nation can move collectively toward a much-needed national perspective on highway transportation issues, provide support for the provincial governments, and respect the traditional role provincial governments play in highway construction..18 Respectfully submitted: For: Blue Water Bridge Commission Point Edward, Ontario For: Buffalo and Fort Erie Public Bridge Authority Fort Erie, Ontario For: Niagara Falls Bridge Commission Niagara Falls, Ontario December 2000.19 ANNEX ‘A’ Figure 1 Blue Water Bridge Projected Two-way Passenger Vehicle Volumes 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Milions of Vehicles Traffic Forecast with Casino Growth Trend Based on Linear Regression (1972 to 1998) The passenger vehicle growth trend based on 1984 to 1998 Traffic Volumes was adjusted to reflect the term total vehicle growth trend demonstrated by volumes between 1972 and 1998. Passenger Vehicle Bas Trend Forecast (Millions) Without Casino 2010 5.02 2020 5.56 With Casino 2010 5.70 2020 6.24 Figure 2 Blue Water Bridge Projected Two-way Commercial Vehicle Volumes 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Milions of Vehicles Growth Trend Based on Linear Regression Note: commercial vehicle growth trend based on 1984 to 1998 Traffic Volumes was adjusted to reflect the long term total vehi growth trend demonstrated by volumes between 1972 and 1998. Commercial Vehicle Ba Trend Forecast (Millions) With/Without Casino 2010 2.24 2020 3.00.20 ANNEX ‘B’ Ontario-United States Exports and Imports of Goods ($92 Millions) Peace Bridge Annual Truck Volume 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Exports of goods (left) Imports of goods (left) Peace Bridge Annual Truck Volume (right).21 ANNEX ‘C’ Forecast of Passenger Vehicles Using NFBC Crossings Forecast of Commercial Vehicles Using NFBC Crossings 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Low Traffic Forecast Vehicles per Year Strategic Forecast Forecasts Observed 18 Year Trend